All Four Big Texas Metros Fell, and That Is Where the Divorces Are

Program and regulatory figures verified October 10, 2026. Details change; confirm your scenario with us.

By Mike Certo, Cornerstone First Mortgage · NMLS #260555 · Updated October 10, 2026

We pulled the metro file ourselves. The headline is not that Texas fell, most of it did not, but that the four markets producing the most divorces all did.

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★ The metros

Zillow Home Value Index, 33rd to 67th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted, month ending 31 August 2026, pulled 2026-10-10. A selection of the 67 Texas metros in the file, more than any other state, chosen to show the range.

★★★ The split, and why the averages mislead

38 Texas metros rose and 29 fell. On that count alone Texas looks middling: 43% falling, sixth highest in the country but a long way behind Florida and Kentucky.

★★★ But look at which ones fell. Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio: all four, every one of them. The metros that rose are largely the smaller ones: Abilene +8.8%, Midland +1.7%, Vernon +2.7%.

★★★ For a divorce-mortgage audience that distinction is the whole story, because the overwhelming majority of Texas buyouts happen in those four metros. A statewide "38 up, 29 down" is true and almost useless; "all four big ones fell" is the fact that applies to you.

★ It is also the inverse of Kentucky, where the cheap end fell hardest and the dearest metro rose.

★★★ What a falling metro does to a settlement

In a buyout the equity being divided is set by a valuation, and the lender's valuation is an appraisal ordered when the loan is in process, routinely months after the figure was agreed.

★★★ In Austin, down 4.7% over the year, an agreed figure from several months ago can meet an appraisal that no longer supports it. That turns a settled number into a live dispute at the worst moment: after signature, with a loan in underwriting and both parties wanting to be finished.

★★ The practical consequence, and it is a drafting one: a stated sum behaves very differently from a method. A stated sum is certain and can become unaffordable. A method tied to an appraisal moves with the market and can unsettle someone who thought the number was final.

★★★ We are not telling you which to choose. That is a legal and negotiating decision. We are telling you the choice has a financing consequence and should be deliberate. The short version for counsel.

★★ And the second-order effect people miss

A buyout loan is sized against the appraised value. If the appraisal comes in low, the loan-to-value rises: which can move the transaction into different pricing, or out of reach entirely, even though nothing about the borrower changed.

★★ In Texas that interacts with the constitutional layer too, because a § 50(a)(6) route carries an 80 percent ceiling measured against "the fair market value of the homestead on the date the extension of credit is made", a falling market directly compresses the room under that cap. Which is one more reason structure matters here.

★★ What we are deliberately not doing

Forecasting. Everything above describes the twelve months to August 2026. We publish no view on where Texas prices go next, and a settlement should not be built on anyone's guess.

★ No rates, no annual percentage rates and no payment figures anywhere on this site.

Mike Certo, NMLS #260555. (480) 296-6513 · mcerto@cfmtg.com.

Frequently asked questions

Are Texas home prices falling in 2026?

In the largest metros, yes. Over the year to August 2026 Austin fell 4.7 percent, Dallas 2.3 percent, Houston 1.9 percent and San Antonio 1.9 percent. Across all sixty-seven Texas metros thirty-eight rose and twenty-nine fell, so statewide it is a split rather than a decline.

Which Texas housing market fell the most?

Alice, down 9.0 percent to a typical $129,817 as of August 2026. Among the major metros Austin fell furthest at 4.7 percent, to $417,977.

How does a falling market affect a divorce buyout?

The equity being divided is set by an appraisal ordered when the loan is in process, often months after the figure was agreed. In a falling metro the appraisal can come in below the assumed value, which both unsettles the agreed number and raises the loan-to-value on the new loan.

Should a Texas settlement state a fixed buyout sum or a method?

That is a legal and negotiating decision for you and your attorney. The financing consequence is that a stated sum is certain but can become unaffordable if the appraisal disappoints, while a method tied to an appraisal moves with the market. The choice should be made deliberately rather than by default.

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Mike Certo · NMLS #260555 · Cornerstone First Mortgage NMLS #173855 · Equal Housing Lender. Educational content about mortgage financing during and after a divorce. Not a loan commitment, and not legal, tax or financial advice. Cornerstone First Mortgage is a lender; it is not a law firm, does not represent any party to a dissolution, does not make attorney referrals, takes no position on how property should be divided, and does not advise on how an owelty of partition should be documented or closed. Texas homestead and property-division rules are set by the Texas Constitution and the Family Code and applied by the courts; homestead tax exemptions are administered by county appraisal districts. Agency requirements described here are Fannie Mae Selling Guide provisions current as of the date shown and are subject to change and to lender overlays. Housing market figures describe the twelve months to August 2026 and are not a forecast. All loans are subject to borrower, property and program qualification.